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| #213698 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 04.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008 IKE REMAINS A SMALL...BUT IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF THE ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AS THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HURRICANE. DESPITE THE EVIDENCE OF SHEAR....THE EYE HAS CLEARED AND REMAINS SURROUNDED BY -70 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOUD TOPS. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 115 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST... WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS AGAIN BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE. IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IKE TO RE-STRENGTHEN. IT APPEARS THAT IKE HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING OR 275/12... HOWEVER A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER...IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN TAKE PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM...CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A REMINDER...4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 23.6N 59.5W 115 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 23.6N 61.5W 105 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 23.4N 64.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 22.9N 66.6W 95 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 69.2W 100 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 73.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W 110 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 80.0W 110 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
