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Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for area in the East-Central Atlantic, only with 10% chance for development, not expected to do much.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 240 (Idalia) , Major: 240 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 240 (Idalia) Major: 240 (Idalia)
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#213928 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:07 PM 05.Sep.2008)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC FRI SEP 05 2008

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 64.1W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 64.1W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 63.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 64.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN