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#214348 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 06.Sep.2008)
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

THE CENTER OF HANNA IS MOVING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF LONG
ISLAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/26...AND HANNA IS RIGHT
ON TRACK. GRADUAL ACCELERATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS HANNA GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIE...AND THE
NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
AND HANNA IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE U.S. COASTLINE AROUND CAPE COD
MASSACHUSETTS BY 07/0900Z.

HANNA'S FAST FORWARD MOTION HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO SOME OF
INCREASE IN OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OBTAINED FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. TWO UNCONFIRMED SHIP REPORTS OF 64 KT AND 60
KT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ONE OF
WHICH OCCURRED IN A RAIN BAND. HOWEVER...THESE COULD HAVE BEEN
ISOLATED GUSTS AND THE RAIN BANDS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
BASED ON EARLIER DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES OF 70 KT AT 5000 TO 7000
FT THAT COVERED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF HANNA IN SEVERAL RAIN BANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE
AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITH 50-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT ANY OF THE
FORECAST TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 40.5N 73.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 07/1200Z 43.0N 68.8W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 08/0000Z 46.4N 61.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 08/1200Z 48.8N 53.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/0000Z 50.0N 45.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/0000Z 52.5N 28.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/0000Z 56.5N 15.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0000Z 61.5N 11.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART