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| #214407 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:01 AM 07.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008 THE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THAT STATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF 121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT. IKE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13. IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS A LITTLE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST EVENING. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALONG THE LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE 36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF IKE NEAR THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY IS DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG IKE INTERACTS WITH LAND. WITH THE NEW TRACK FORECAST UP THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADIVSORY. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...CONIDITIONS APPREAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 21.1N 72.2W 115 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.0N 74.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.6W 125 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.8N 79.0W 85 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 81.1W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 84.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
