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| #214586 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 PM 07.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008 SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA. SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST. SFMR AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER THAN EXPECTED. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING....HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING. THE STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF CUBA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A TURN. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.1N 75.8W 105 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 90 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 79.9W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 09/1200Z 22.8N 81.7W 70 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 10/0000Z 23.6N 83.5W 80 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.4W 90 KT 96HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 92.0W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
