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| #214744 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 08.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF IKE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS...RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY FROM CUBA. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND 48 HR. IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NOW 275/12. TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TAKING THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW. ONCE IN THE GULF...IKE COULD SLOW DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING BY AND BE REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SUCH A PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 21.4N 79.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.8N 81.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 22.6N 83.2W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.4N 86.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5N 89.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 92.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0N 96.0W 95 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA |
