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| #30524 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:10 PM 06.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS MAINLY TO UPGRADE DENNIS TO A HURRICANE BASED ON A 79-KT 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND THAT WAS MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 2127Z ON THE OUTBOUND LEG AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE EYE AND MEASURING A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB. WIND RADII FOR 64-KT WERE INCLUDED AND THE 50-KT RADII WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE NEW RECON WIND DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/12. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. HOWEVER... RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING...THEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND DENNIS COULD REACH CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT PASSES CLOSE TO JAMAICA IN 24 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2200Z 16.1N 72.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 74.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.4N 76.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.1W 95 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.4N 81.4W 100 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 27.5N 86.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 88.0W 65 KT...INLAND |
