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| #31731 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 AM 10.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN DENNIS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 KT. THIS IS BASED ON MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 139 AND 140 KT FROM A COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. DENNIS MAY UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH USUALLY RESULTS IN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY ENVIRONMENTAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES THAT COULD WEAKEN THE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... HOWEVER THE WATERS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL AREAS ARE OF SOMEWHAT LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE. THE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWETWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS EAST AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. PREDICTED STORM SURGE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE INCREASED INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 27.8N 86.1W 125 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 29.6N 87.4W 125 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 89.0W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 11/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/0600Z 36.5N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/0600Z 38.0N 88.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/0600Z 38.5N 86.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/0600Z 38.5N 84.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
