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| #355207 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 26.Jun.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010 AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED ALEX AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE WAS A LITTLE STRONGER...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 996 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KNOTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THERE WERE SEVERAL SFMR VALUES AROUND 55 KNOTS...AND THIS IS THE VALUE USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST T-NUMBERS WHICH REACHED 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE IS LITTLE ROOM FOR ALEX TO INTENSIFY MUCH MORE SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER LAND. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN. ALEX HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST IN AROUND 96 HOURS. THE CENTER WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EARLIER TODAY BUT NOW THAT THE STORM IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE PROVIDED A GOOD FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE RELIABLE AND IT IS ESTIMATED AT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO TO KEEP ALEX ON A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED WHILE ALEX IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH BECAUSE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH JOINING THE RELIABLE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 17.3N 87.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 17.7N 89.2W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 28/0600Z 20.0N 92.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 93.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 21.5N 95.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 30/1800Z 22.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/1800Z 22.0N 101.0W 20 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
