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| #356807 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 01.Jul.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010 THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT ALEX HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. IN ADDITION... THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTERS OF ALEX HAVE DECOUPLED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER MOVING SOUTHWEST AND THE LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ZACATECAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...SO ALEX WILL STAY A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALEX WILL FURTHER WEAKEN...THEN PROBABLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS LIKELY UNTIL DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE REMNANTS OF ALEX ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 23.2N 101.2W 35 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 102.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
