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| #358373 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 08.Jul.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010 1000 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010 REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER IS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/13...BUT LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IS EXPECTED SHORTLY. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RAINS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 26.0N 97.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 27.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG |
