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| #373223 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 02.Sep.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010 500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DROPSONDES FROM THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ONLY IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS PREDICT SOME BUILDING OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.5N 39.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 40.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 03/1800Z 13.7N 41.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.0N 43.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 04/1800Z 14.2N 44.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 48.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.0N 52.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 57.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH |
