|
Show Selection: |
| #373300 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 02.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1100 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010 FIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT...BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TYPICALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED SHEAR. HOWEVER...FIONA HAS BEEN WITHSTANDING THE SHEAR DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. FIONA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/14 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN AROUND 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 26.9N 66.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 28.7N 66.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 30.8N 65.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 32.7N 64.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 34.8N 63.6W 35 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 39.5N 60.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
