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| #373362 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 03.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010 FIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 3-HR AVERAGE ADT OF T3.3/51 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT...WHICH IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS. FIONA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF FIONA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 28.1N 66.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 29.8N 66.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 65.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 34.2N 63.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 36.4N 62.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 41.5N 58.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
