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| #373593 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 03.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010 FIONA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND AN ELONGATED AND POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT HAD RISEN TO 1013 MB. ALSO...ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM LACKS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION IS A VERY SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 20-30 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT. DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT DO NOT ALREADY SHOW FIONA AS AN OPEN WAVE ALSO SUPPORT SUPPORT DISSIPATION WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND PASS JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION...AS A SHALLOW LOW...IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON FIONA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 31.4N 64.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 05/0000Z 35.2N 62.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 05/1200Z 38.2N 60.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN |
