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| #374488 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 07.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT HERMINE IS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THEREFORE...HERMINE REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. DESPITE BEING WELL INLAND...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN INNER CORE AND RAINBANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/16...AND THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 29.9N 98.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 31.5N 99.4W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 08/1800Z 34.0N 99.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 09/0600Z 36.6N 98.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 09/1800Z 39.0N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH |
