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| #374552 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 07.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THE INTENSITY OF HERMINE HAS DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS OF 00Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LARGE PATCH OF 50-60 KT DOPPLER VELOCITIES BETWEEN 7000-9000 FT LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER OF HERMINE JUST NORTH OF BRADY TEXAS. THEREFORE...A HIGHER GUST DIFFERENTIAL THAN USUAL IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/14. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF STATES. BY 48 HOURS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND ALSO BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COULD INFUSE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC ENERGY INTO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT WOULD AMPLIFY IT AFTER THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY THURSDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HERMINE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH... BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 31.6N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 08/1200Z 33.5N 99.7W 20 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 09/0000Z 35.8N 99.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 09/1200Z 38.0N 97.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 10/0000Z 39.7N 94.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
