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| #375550 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:25 PM 12.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 130 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INDICATE THAT IGOR HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE VISIBLE AND BD-CURVE INFRARED ENHANCEMENT PICTURES REVEAL A CLEAR 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE WITH A SURROUNDING INTENSE INNER CORE RING OF -80 DEGREE CELSIUS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO INDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THEN SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. ALSO...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THESE CYCLES. THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1830Z 17.7N 46.1W 115 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 17.8N 47.5W 125 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 49.8W 125 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 18.4N 51.8W 125 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 53.6W 130 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 20.7N 56.7W 130 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 22.6N 59.6W 125 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 24.5N 62.5W 125 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN |
