|
Show Selection: |
| #375948 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 14.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...AND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND T-NUMBERS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. AS STATED EARLIER...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE EVOLUTION ARE PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THEREFORE AT LEAST SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM MODEL AT DAYS 4 AND 5. SATELLITE FIXES OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF IGOR INDICATE THAT THE MUCH-AWAITED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/7. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ON THIS PACKAGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A BROAD TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RESULTING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE TRACK...WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE 5-DAY POINT...SINCE TRACK ERRORS COULD EASILY BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES AT THAT FORECAST INTERVAL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER IGOR WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 17.9N 51.7W 115 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 18.4N 52.8W 115 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 19.4N 54.2W 115 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 20.5N 55.7W 120 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 21.7N 57.1W 120 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 24.4N 60.2W 115 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 27.5N 63.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 31.5N 64.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
