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| #376225 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 15.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1100 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010 RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH JULIA WHEN THE HURRICANE REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. THIS STRENGTHENING APPPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF THIS MORNING...AS OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR COMBINED WITH A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA. THIS LEVELING OF ITS INTENSITY ALSO SHOWS UP WITH THE T NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB...WHICH HOVER AND DROP SLIGHTLY AROUND/BETWEEN 5 AND 6. HOWEVER JULIA MAINTAINS A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST/CORE AND CLEAR EYE STRUCTURE WITH IMPRESSIVE CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT... THUS INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KTS. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH MARGINAL AND COOLER SST VALUES. THE FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH BUT THERE REMAINS RATHER LARGE SPREAD WITHIN THE GLOBAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR THE NEXT 60 TO 72 HRS...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND 15 KTS OR GREATER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AS A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 72 HRS...JULIA FORWARD MOTION SLOWS AS A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND WHICH KEEPS THE STORM FROM ACCELERATING INTO THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINED A TIGHT CORRELATION TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 18.2N 32.7W 115 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 34.4W 115 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 21.3N 37.5W 115 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 22.9N 41.0W 105 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 24.3N 44.2W 95 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 27.5N 49.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 31.5N 50.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 35.0N 47.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER MUSHER |
