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| #376391 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 16.Sep.2010) TCMAT2 HURRICANE JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 0900 UTC THU SEP 16 2010 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 36.2W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 36.2W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 35.4W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.8N 38.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 55NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.6N 42.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 65NE 50SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 85SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.4N 45.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 65NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 85SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 28.3N 47.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 32.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...135NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 35.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 36.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 36.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
