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| #376674 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 17.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC. SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY... ASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KARL THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. KARL STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER VERY WARM WATERS PRIOR TO LANDFALL LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AFTER THIS TIME OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS WESTWARD...OR 270 DEGREES...AT 8 KNOTS. KARL WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF KARL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION OF 7 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT TIME A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.7N 95.3W 105 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 96.3W 120 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 19.6N 97.6W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 99.2W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 19/0600Z 19.4N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
