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| #376831 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 17.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 500 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010 JULIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND AT TIMES IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO BECOME EXPOSED. USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS LEADS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT. THE SHEAR...WHICH IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF HURRICANE IGOR...IS NOT LIKELY TO RELENT. IN FACT... THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONGER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AND IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JULIA WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF POST-TROPICAL IGOR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/18. THE FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE GETTING PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF IGOR. THUS...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH- NORTHEAST. THIS IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK AND GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 25.2N 48.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 26.9N 50.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 29.6N 51.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 32.5N 52.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 34.8N 51.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 38.2N 47.2W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 43.0N 43.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
