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| #377260 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 19.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010 JULIA HAS HAD ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM IS AGAIN RUNNING INTO STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR AND SHOULD WEAKEN SOON. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOULD HAVE A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND INDICATES JULIA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HOURS. BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CENTER OF JULIA HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION HAS VEERED QUICKLY TO 065 DEGREES AT 13 KT. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 34.2N 50.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 34.9N 48.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 35.6N 46.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 36.2N 44.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 21/1200Z 37.5N 42.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
