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| #377649 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 20.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1100 PM AST MON SEP 20 2010 IGOR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER...SHORT-TERM GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET REACHED THE CENTER. IGOR IS THEREFORE NOT COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS...HOWEVER...EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ON TUESDAY. SOME BAROCLINICALLY INDUCED STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES PAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BE MERGING WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER HIGH LATITUDES. INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT FASTER 045/25. IGOR...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART...IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. EVEN THOUGH IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IS COMPLETE. ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS THEREFORE MAINTAINING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THAT PROVINCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 39.9N 59.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 43.2N 55.0W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 22/0000Z 48.9N 49.4W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 22/1200Z 54.8N 47.9W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 23/0000Z 59.0N 52.7W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 24/0000Z 63.5N 59.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 25/0000Z 68.5N 62.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
