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| #377776 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 21.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 21 2010 IGOR IS VERY CLOSE TO LOSING ALL ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND WILL LIKELY BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 65 KT...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ASCAT DATA SHOULD BE RECEIVED FROM NEAR THE HURRICANE SOON...AND A RE-ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY WILL BE MADE AT THAT TIME. IGOR COULD STILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD PAST NEWFOUNDLAND BUT THEN ALL THE MODELS SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NEAR GREENLAND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. IGOR IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AT 40 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR WILL BE TURNING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SWINGS AROUND NEWFOUNDLAND AND MOVES THROUGH THE DAVIS STRAITS. THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN MARKEDLY FROM 36-96 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS AND POSSIBLY MERGES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF QUEBEC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS RELATIVELY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 46.2N 52.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 50.2N 49.4W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 22/1200Z 55.3N 48.5W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 23/0000Z 59.8N 51.6W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 23/1200Z 62.7N 57.8W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 24/1200Z 63.5N 61.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 25/1200Z 62.0N 60.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART |
