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| #378254 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 PM 23.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010 200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND WINDS SUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PASS OVER OR NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY ISSUED AT 2100 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1800Z 13.9N 76.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 14.1N 77.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 14.7N 80.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 15.4N 83.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1200Z 16.9N 87.8W 70 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 88.4W 70 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/1200Z 19.5N 87.5W 70 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
