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| #378336 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 23.Sep.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010 1100 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010 OVERALL...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LISA IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION WEAKENING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUTER BANDS ON THE INCREASE. DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED... HOWEVER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST IN 72 HOURS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT HAPPENED SOONER. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MORE RECENTLY... CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT HAS OCCURRED...WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/4. THE TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE TOMORROW AS RIDGING REDEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LISA. MOST OF THE RELIABLE MODELS ARE BECOMING BETTER CLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION...THOUGH THE HWRF/GFDL ARE A LOT FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE....GENERALLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.1N 28.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 18.7N 28.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 20.0N 28.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 21.4N 29.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 22.8N 30.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 32.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 28/0000Z 27.5N 34.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 29/0000Z 29.5N 36.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
