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| #379373 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 28.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48 HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.6N 82.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
