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#382860 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 13.Oct.2010)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
PAULA THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE 96 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO
ABOUT AN 86-KT SURFACE WIND. THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WINDS
OBSERVED WERE 81-82 KT. BASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THAT CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF PAULA HAVE BEEN COOLING
DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85
KT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN BY 3 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY...THE CYCLONE IS NOW ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A FIELD OF
HIGHER ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES...WHICH HAS KEPT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEARLY CONSTANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BY 36 HOURS...PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN
EASTWARD AS THE HURRICANE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER IN THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE EASTWARD TURN. THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD...DUE IN LARGE PART TO NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HWRF MODEL.
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PAULA JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...WHEREAS THE GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN AND BAM
DEEP MODELS BRING PAULA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE LATTER
MODEL SCENARIOS SEEM UNREASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THAT MODEL AND NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY
FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 23N LATITUDE AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT PAULA MAY WEAKEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

PAULA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY NOW THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO NEAR 25 KT AND RECON INDICATED THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY
SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PAULA DUE TO
VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF PAULA
INTERACTS WITH LAND SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING WOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SMALL SIZE
OF THE WIND FIELD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND
SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 20.7N 86.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 22.3N 85.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 23.0N 83.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 22.9N 80.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART