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| #384371 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 21.Oct.2010) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 500 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 80.7W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT A TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
