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| #384644 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 22.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010 DESPITE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SUGGESTS THAT RICHARD IS BETTER ORGANIZED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVELS WINDS WERE ABOUT 40 KT...WITH BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES NEAR 35 KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006-1007 MB. IN ADDITION...THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PERHAPS THE CENTER IS TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL WINDS WILL STAY 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER LIGHT AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MODIFYING AND IS FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY INTENSIFYING RICHARD INTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER AN AVERAGE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... THOUGH THE CATEGORY TWO SOLUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF IS NOT UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST BELOW...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN THE 48-HR AND 72-HR FORECASTS UP TO LANDFALL. AFTER THAT...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAKING RESTRENGTHENING UNLIKELY. A WESTWARD MOTION HAS SEEMINGLY BEGUN WITH RICHARD AS RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE STORM TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 15.8N 81.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 81.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 15.8N 82.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 83.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 16.6N 85.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 17.8N 88.4W 55 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/1200Z 21.0N 91.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
