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| #385045 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 24.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010 OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 74 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE AREA AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BELIZE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IS ABOVE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES LAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...290/10. ASIDE FROM BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. RICHARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERWARDS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.9N 86.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W 85 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.8N 90.2W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS |
