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| #385153 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 24.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010 RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND 0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY. THE EYE ACTUALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR THAT RICHARD HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP RICHARD FROM RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE BACK OVER WATER. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS RICHARD TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND NOW INDICATES DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE RICHARD BECOMES A WEAK CYCLONE IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER THEREAFTER...LEANING TOWARD A SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 17.3N 88.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 17.6N 89.7W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/0000Z 18.2N 91.0W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/1200Z 19.2N 92.2W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 27/0000Z 20.4N 93.3W 25 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG |
