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| #385295 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 25.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1000 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010 THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. ALTHOUGH RICHARD SHOULD ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 18 HOURS OR SO THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE REGENERATION. RICHARD IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED AND THE MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 285/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD STEER RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 17.8N 90.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.1W 25 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 19.5N 92.2W 25 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 27/0000Z 20.7N 93.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 27/1200Z 21.8N 94.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS |
