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| #385461 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 25.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1000 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010 RICHARD BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER LAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER SOON...RICHARD WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS RICHARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUESDAY. A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RICHARD TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 18.4N 91.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 92.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 27/0000Z 20.3N 93.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.5N 94.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
