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| #386309 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:01 PM 29.Oct.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SHARY MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT...AND A MAXIMUM SFMR ESTIMATED WIND OF 53 KT. A SUBSEQUENT ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1442 UTC INDICATED BELIEVABLE WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS STRONG SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...SHOULD IMPACT THE CYCLONE SOON. IN ADDITION...SHARY IS CURRENTLY OVER ABOUT 25 C WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NONETHELESS...NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS SHARY TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOMING ABSORBED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. SHARY IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 30.9N 65.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 33.1N 62.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 36.8N 56.8W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 31/0600Z 41.3N 48.9W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART |
