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| #387390 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 03.Nov.2010) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 2100 UTC WED NOV 03 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 74.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 74.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.8N 75.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N 74.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.2N 73.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
