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| #388402 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:35 PM 07.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION... AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 26.1N 69.1W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12HR VT 08/0600Z 26.3N 67.9W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 08/1800Z 26.8N 65.6W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 09/0600Z 28.4N 62.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 09/1800Z 30.6N 60.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
