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| #39411 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 13.Aug.2005) TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102005 0300Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 45.5W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 45.5W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 45.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 46.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.9N 47.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 48.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.6N 50.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.3N 53.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 23.2N 57.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 45.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART |
