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#4110 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 10.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
0900Z TUE AUG 10 2004

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS
MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 66.3W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 66.3W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 65.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.0N 72.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.3N 76.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 26.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 66.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN