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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#4111 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 10.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT HAS
PERSISTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE OUTER BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY MINIMAL BUT INCREASING...THE CIRCULATION OCCUPIES A LARGE
ENVELOPE AND OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. DVORAK CI
NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS 2.5...AND ON THIS BASIS THE SYSTEM IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WITH AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

CHARLEY CONTINUES TO SPEED ALONG AT 285/21...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE INCREASED DEPTH OF THE
CONVECTION. MOST TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
THEREAFTER AS CHARLEY REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE
NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET NOW TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE GFS
TAKES CHARLEY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A LITTLE FASTER
GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY IS QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH VERY WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM OCEAN. THE GFDL MAKES
CHARLEY A HURRICANE WITHIN THREE DAYS...AND SHIPS DOES SO IN LESS
THAN TWO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...BUT INDICATES MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 13.0N 66.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 15.0N 72.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.3N 76.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 17.5N 79.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 82.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 88.0W 80 KT