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| #41179 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:40 AM 22.Aug.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL NOON EDT MON AUG 22 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY...MEXICAN RADAR DATA...AND QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE PRESUMPTION THAT THE CORE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS STILL BROAD. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY STRONG AND THE WATER IS WARM...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE VERY LONG OVER THE WATER TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...I PREFER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION IN FORECASTING THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM STRENGTH. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST UNTIL LANDFALL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1600Z 19.5N 95.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 19.7N 96.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 19.9N 97.6W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
