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#42208 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 26.Aug.2005)
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z SAT AUG 27 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 55SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.6N 84.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 35.0N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 40.5N 81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 83.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA