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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#4236 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 11.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
1500Z WED AUG 11 2004

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI BE DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5 76.1 W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 76.1W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 75.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.9N 78.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.0N 80.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 82.0W...ON COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 44.0N 71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 51.0N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 76.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH