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| #42514 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:05 AM 28.Aug.2005) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 153 KNOTS...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 140 KNOTS. OBVIOUSLY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG KATRINA WILL BE AT LANDFALL. WE HAVE VERY LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING THIS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1200Z 25.7N 87.7W 140 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 26.3N 88.4W 140 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 89.4W 140 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 30.0N 89.8W 135 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 32.3N 89.3W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/0600Z 37.5N 86.0W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0600Z 42.0N 79.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0600Z 47.0N 70.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
