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#4292 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 11.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
2100Z WED AUG 11 2004

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA
BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 77.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 77.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 76.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.3N 79.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 49.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 77.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH