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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#4295 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 11.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

THE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH
SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED
BANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...SO THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND THE OCEAN VERY
FAVORABLE...FOR STRENGTHENING. THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE AND...AFTER WOBBLING A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE
RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE...290/15. I SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO CURVE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ABOUT
48 HOURS...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RUN...AS WELL
AS WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE 36 HOUR FORECAST WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.0N 77.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.3N 79.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 20.5N 81.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 80 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1800Z 49.0N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL