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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#4355 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 11.Aug.2004)
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...CHARLEY HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING EARLY THURSDAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO
NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA
EARLY THURSDAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES
...310 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS NOT
STRENGTHEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA