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| #4444 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 12.Aug.2004) TCMAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004 1500Z THU AUG 12 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THE HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO ...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 81.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 110SE 50SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 81.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 80.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.6N 82.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.6N 83.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.2N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.5N 76.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 47.0N 66.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 81.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART |
