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#4444 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 12.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
1500Z THU AUG 12 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THE
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE
SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO
...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 81.2W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 30SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 110SE 50SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 81.2W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 80.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.6N 82.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.6N 83.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.2N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.5N 76.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 47.0N 66.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 81.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART